Republicans in Texas failed to flip five U.S. House districts they redrew to favor the GOP, winning only District 32 while Democrats held four seats, including three in the heavily Latino Rio Grande Valley. Experts said the party’s strategy was undermined by a “dramatically incorrect” overestimation of Latino Republican support, as Democratic incumbents Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez won by double digits.
Republican efforts in the other four targeted districts fell short by wide margins. In Texas’ 9th Congressional District near Houston, Republican Alex Mealer conceded within an hour of polls closing, despite polls showing her six points ahead. Democrat Leticia Gutierrez won the seat after running a campaign funded with roughly $150,000 against Mealer, who raised millions, according to Houston Public Media.
The Associated Press Voter Poll found nationally that about one-third of Hispanics backed the Republican in their local U.S. House race, compared with roughly 4 in 10 who voted for Trump two years ago.
In the Rio Grande Valley, Democratic incumbents Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez secured reelection by double-digit margins in the 28th and 34th districts, respectively. Gonzalez’s race against Republican Eric Flores was the seventh most expensive in the country, with more than $44 million spent, records show. Republican Jace Yarbough won only the 32nd district near Dallas, leading by three points with 99% of votes counted.
Political experts said the party’s strategy was undermined by a “dramatically incorrect” overestimation of Latino Republican support, according to Houston Public Media. Polling from a year ago showed many Latinos regretted voting for former President Donald Trump, and numbers swung back to Democrats. In some counties, Democrats received up to 70% of Latino support, breaking their own records, the outlet reported.
Republicans spent heavily across Texas but faced weak messaging and poor candidate selection, according to Houston Public Media. Andrew Cates, a political attorney, said Democrats used spending “with a scalpel instead of a shotgun.”
The Texas results mirrored a national failure for the Republican redistricting strategy. Republicans in eight states redrew districts at Trump’s urging but lost most targeted Democratic-held seats, according to the Associated Press. The plan fell flat in Alabama, Florida, and Texas; was blocked by courts in Missouri and defeated by voters there; and was offset in California, where Democrats flipped all five targeted Republican seats. Of nine races rated as toss-up, leaning, or likely Democratic by the Cook Political Report, Republicans lost all nine by early Wednesday, Newsweek reported.
“This is a catastrophic rebuke of Donald Trump’s failed effort to gerrymander the country into oblivion,” said John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, according to the Associated Press.
Adam Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, said trying to pick up five Texas seats “was a Herculean task” and required trends that “did not happen,” the Associated Press reported. Kincaid added that without redrawing, Republicans likely would have lost even more seats.
Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, said the “entire mid-decade redistricting gambit was a complete bust for Republicans,” according to the Associated Press. Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston professor, called it “more like a dummy-mander than a gerrymander,” Houston Public Media reported.
In other states, Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz won in a redrawn Florida district, saying Republicans “lit that money on fire” after spending $26 million against him, according to the Associated Press. In Alabama, Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures won reelection despite a Supreme Court ruling allowing a friendlier GOP map. In North Carolina, Democratic Rep. Don Davis held a slight lead Wednesday in a redrawn district; the race cost over $50 million. In Ohio, Democratic Reps. Greg Landsman and Marcy Kaptur won their redrawn districts, Newsweek reported.
The outcome has prompted responses from Democrats. Maryland voters approved a constitutional amendment making it easier for Democrats to redraw districts, touted as a way to “stop Trump,” according to the Associated Press. Democrats gaining state legislatures could use redistricting power, notably in Wisconsin, and New York Democrats have taken initial steps toward redistricting before 2028, the Associated Press reported.
Justin Levitt, a Loyola Law School professor, said the midterm “shows districts aren’t destiny – that if voters actually show up, they can overcome district lines,” according to the Associated Press. Josh Blank of the Texas Politics Project cautioned against predicting 2028 from this cycle, saying Texas is “very much a competitive place,” Houston Public Media reported.
